General Motors: Laissez Mourir

I’m with Philip Greenspun on the question of whether to bail out the auto industry:

The government has already done everything that it needs to in order to help G.M. […] Chapter 11 was designed specifically so that employees can keep their jobs, albeit possibly at lower salaries, while shareholders and creditors suffer and/or are wiped out.

For me, it’s not a question of what G.M. “deserve[s],” as Greenspun puts it. The banks surely didn’t “deserve” anything; bailing them out made sense in terms of avoiding economic calamity worse than whatever we’re going to face anyway.

The point about G.M. is that Chapter 11 bankruptcy will probably suit the company and the economy better in the long term than will a bailout. The point is that the U.S. auto industry has to change in order to be more competitive at home, and that keeping G.M. afloat at a tiny fraction of last-year’s market cap will not restore value or even necessarily position the company to rebuild in the near future. The point is that this American powerhouse has already failed, and that a bailout now will not retroactively prevent that failure, any more than a bankruptcy proceeding could.

What a bailout will do is protect some employees from hardship and, in doing so, help an entire region see its way through financial crisis. However, this admirable goal would be more effectively served with economic aid programs targeting those without jobs (and not just in Dearborn).

You can’t force a company like G.M. to reinvent itself with a bailout, but you can spend that same money on the creation of new jobs whose output benefits the entire country—jobs that renovate our infrastructure and reduce our dependence on foreign, exhaustible sources of energy.

To put it another way, the fifty billion dollars’ worth of auto industry loans that we might see in the coming months represents a third of the budget of Obama’s ten-year energy plan. Where will the money be better spent?

NBC + Amazon: No Market Share Worries?

The deal, as I’m sure you’re aware, is that NBC has left Apple for supposedly greener pastures, Amazon’s Unbox video download service. But forgetting about more restrictive DRM, weirder pricing schemes, and the rest, I’m stuck thinking about a few obvious market share sacrifices that NBC must not be aware they’re making.

Here’s one problem: According to Apple’s most recent quarterly report, iTunes Store sales of $608 million represents 33% growth over last year. On the other hand, Amazon’s 10-Q doesn’t mention Unbox, since the service hadn’t even launched as of the report’s late-July release. Even allowing that NBC makes up 40% of video downloads from the iTunes Store, they’re giving up a sizeable existing market in order to try to create their own with Amazon. It’s Slotkin’s old myth of “regeneration through violence” biting them in the ass.

It’s also worth noting that Unbox works only in the US, while iTunes also makes sales around the world. According to the W3Counter, about 30% of Internet traffic comes from the US; depending on one’s calculations, the same portion or greater comes from non-US nations where the iTunes Store makes sales. One has to acknowledge the greater popularity of NBC’s programming in the US than elsewhere, but all the same, here, too, NBC’s move represents a significant sacrifice of the potential market for digital content.

Finally, Unbox currently doesn’t work with any non-Windows OS. Again according to the W3Counter, Apple, Linux, and other systems make up roughly a 6% market share, which is a decent chunk of income to abandon, when you add it to the rest.

Can NBC really hope to make sufficiently greater income, with the switch to Unbox, to outweigh these factors?

[Post prompted by Daring Fireball‘s excellent coverage of the story]