The Nuts
Originally uploaded by devanpgh.
I flopped the nuts. And not just any nuts: The theoretical nuts.
Apparently this happens once in every 19,600 times that you’re dealt two suited cards between 10 and A, which happens once every 8 hands, give or take.* This means that the whole thing happens once every 156,000 hands. Thing that are more likely to happen to me:
- Winning any prize in PowerBall (about 4,260 times as likely)
- Getting hit by lightning in my lifetime (about 31 times as likely)
- Dying in an air transport accident (also about 31 times as likely)
- Dying from contact with hot tap water (about 1.1 times as likely)
I guess it’s time to say my goodbyes.
*Unless my math is wrong, which it probably is. I have
P = (20/52) x (4/12)
where the first card can be any one of 20 cards in the deck (i.e., any 10, J, Q, K, A), and the second must be one of the four remaining cards in the same suit at or above 10. 1/P is 7.8, so this hand happens about once every 8 hands. (Anecdotally, it seems like far less than that, but I’m being conservative, since I lack better math skills.)
Don't Look Now 